Up Dawson's creek...

Well, I feel safe in saying that 2009 will not be Tim Raines’ year.

Mind you, when Tom Tango formed "The Dweeb Team" of himself, Jonah Keri, Craig Burley, Neate Sager and yours truly we had no illusions after he received less than 30% of the vote last year that this would be a quick and easy process. We’ve watched the tireless efforts of Rich Lederer in educating the masses regarding Bert Blyleven to understand what is required.

I think I speak for our little group that we’re rooting for Blyleven if for no other reason than once he gets in, Lederer will be focusing his talents on Raines--certainly a powerful ally and I’m guessing Tom will extend an invite to him should the 287-game winner take his rightful place among the immortals.

Heck, he’s pretty much an unofficial member at this point contributing to our modest little site and plugging the Expos’ great whenever possible and for this we owe him our thanks.

Sadly, 2008 was not a good year for me and I didn’t get nearly the lobbying efforts accomplished for Raines that I had hoped and pray aught-nine will be a kinder 12 months. I guess I can take a little solace in knowing that I probably would not have made a major difference this year but with Rickey Henderson due to go in I do feel more attention will be paid to “Rock” and his career since the two were often compared back in the mid-to-late 1980’s and for a significant stretch Raines was every bit as good as Rickey but Henderson did it for much, much longer.

Bottom line--we’ll never see another Rickey Henderson-type career: a leadoff man with almost 300 HR and over 1000 RBI plus topping 2000 runs and walks, 3000 hits and we haven’t even gotten to his trademark--the stolen base which he accomplished over 1400 times. He isn’t the baseline for the Hall--the man is a first ballot, inner-circle all-time great that would be in Cooperstown regardless of how “small” the Hall of Fame might have been had selections been done more carefully.

Tim Raines doesn’t have to be Rickey Henderson to be worthy but it is interesting that for about five years--he was just that.

However, this isn’t about Raines--he isn’t on the cusp (yet) but a teammate of his certainly is--Andre Dawson.

The biggest knock against him is his, quite frankly mediocre, on base percentage of .323. Now I have heard a lot of reasons why it should be discounted and some of them are ridiculous. I mean, so what if the base on balls wasn’t as highly regarded then as it is today--it’s still every bit as valuable. What I do think is, while it is a blemish on his record and should not be ignored, I feel the rest of his career makes up for that one deficiency in his game.

I look at Richie Ashburn--a man that was once on my list of players that belonged in the Hall of Fame and I was gratified in 1995 when he took his rightful place there (and fair minds can disagree with me on his worthiness)--as a bit of a comp to Dawson; not so much in statistical comparison but in his Hall of Fame case.

Like Dawson, Ashburn had a statistical flaw--a below average slugging percentage; indeed his OBP (.398) was higher than his SLG (.382). Both men were terrific defensive centerfielders, good base runners and decent base thieves and considered good teammates with solid character. However, their roles in the lineup were different; Ashburn batted leadoff where on base percentage is considered more valuable than slugging average. Conversely, Dawson was a middle-of-the-order hitter where home runs and power (slugging) are more valued than the ability to reach base.

Of course, that was the nature of their gifts, Ashburn would likely have been a lesser player if he sacrificed contact for power and in the same way, Dawson probably would have lost value had he sacrificed power for better contact since they were focusing on their weaknesses rather than building on their strengths. Ashburn was 5'10'' 170 lb. Dawson, 6'3'' 200 lb--one had a smaller strike zone, the other a more powerful physique--generally one plays the cards they are dealt.

While it is obvious that Dawson would have been a better player had he possessed the ability to walk more, chances are good that his managers would have become upset if he started to look to merely reach base with two men on and a full count than gearing up for the fastball. I feel comfortable in saying this because for a good chunk of 2008 I watched a number of Blue Jay (supposed) run producers do just that: have men on base and pass on a juicy pitch hoping that ball four is called rather than looking at putting the ball in the gap or over the fence.

The team expected Dawson to swing the bat, move runners and get them home since that was what he was best at--had he an aptitude for getting on base and working the count he might not have batted where he did in the lineup. I cannot fault a man for playing within himself and acting in accord with what he perceives his job description to be any more than I could fault Ashburn for looking for ball four on a 3-1 count when Del Ennis and Willie Jones are somewhere behind you in the batting order.

What are we left with in Dawson? A Gold Glover at two outfield positions--both key defensive ones (CF and RF), is top five in extra base hits (career) among players with 1000 or more games in CF (23rd overall all-time) and one of just 31 players in baseball history with 1000 or more. Among those, only Luis Gonzalez and possibly Rafael Palmeiro (I guess Sammy Sosa could fall short) aren’t in the Hall or certain to go and those players have been associated with steroids although Sosa hasn’t been definitely linked. Dawson finished with 2774 hits was 20-20 five times in six seasons (finishing his career as one of only six players with 300 HR and 300 stolen bases and half them--Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders and *cough* Barry Bonds--did it in the silly-ball era) and had 587 of his extra base hits playing half his games in a tough hitter’s park in Montreal before moving on to Chicago.

A quick digression: the other two 300-300 guys prior to the so called “silly-ball era” are Willie Mays and Bobby Bonds and I feel quite strongly that Barry’s dad is deserving.

I don’t think one has to be any better than that to be a Hall of Famer and I feel the totality of those achievements is enough to overcome a .323 OBP.

Best Regards

John