To begin with: last year’s offensive woes were due to underperformance by key players and staggeringly awful hitting with runners in scoring position under the previous regime. It’s unlikely that such a thing will repeat itself since they’re random events; both Vernon Wells and Alex Rios should be solid, Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen should be fully healed, left field and DH will be vastly improved by league average hitting (and it appears the pieces are in place for at least that much) and second base will be well covered offensively by Aaron Hill and Joe Inglett.
On top of this, there are potential platoons that can be used at 1B/2B/LF/DH with Jose Bautista, Michael Barrett and Inglett on the roster. Barrett and Bautista have solid track records in hitting lefties and Rios should be much improved in that regard from last season since he mashed southpaws to the tune of .345/.422/.600 in 2007 and .295/.341/.533 in aught-six (he was a puzzling .289/.321/.414 last season).
I think the offense will be at least league average and might be a good bit better.
The team has the perfect infrastructure in place to work young pitchers into the rotation--a terrific defense behind them, a deep bullpen ready to take over, enough young arms upon whom to spread the workload around and a bona fide ace and rotation anchor to show them the way.
Now, we’ve already discussed David Purcey, Brett Cecil and Mike Maroth in earlier posts this year so I thought it might be fun to check out some other rotation hopefuls that could be part of the mix come Opening Day.
Since I’m enjoying the delusional experience far more than doom 'n' gloomin' about the team’s chances I’ll be as optimistic as possible without going overboard. Probably after Purcey and Cecil, my next pick to win a shot at a starting job is Brad Mills.
Mills, a lefty, pitched at three levels last year: low A, A and AA and before you bemoan his lack of AAA experience bear in mind that Jesse Litsch was initially called up from AA and we all know how that turned out. Mills will be 24 by Opening Day and was 13-5, 1.95 ERA in a bit under 150 IP. His command is promising with a BB/9 of 3.18 and hopefully that will improve and his K/9 is a snappy 9.71; a 3:1 K:BB ratio from a young, hard throwing southpaw bodes well for the future. The best part of his 2008 was that he improved at every level; he posted a 2.55 ERA in low A ball and lowered it to 1.35 in high A and dropped it still further to 1.10 at New Hampshire in AA.
The kid got game.
One guy I liked that I saw 3-4 years ago was a little lefty named Davis Romero. He underwent the Tommy John procedure and missed all of 2007 but he had a live arm and terrific command. I referred to him at the time (remember, this was early in 2005-6) as “Cole Hamels-lite” since he was smaller and a bit less gifted than the Phillies’ young ace. In his first season after his surgery he tossed 106.2 IP and while he was no longer striking out over a batter an inning he did whiff 88 while walking just 29 (a 2.45 BB/9) which I consider promising since command is the last thing to return after ligament transplant surgery and he still managed a K/9 of almost 7.5.
My biggest concern is whether his small frame (5'10'' 160 lb.) can hold up to the rigours of starting--he’s smaller than Pedro Martinez. I absolutely love his stuff and if he could throw 5-6 innings each time out he’d be an asset in the No. 5 spot. While we’re on the subject of Romeros, we have 2005 first round pick Ricky Romero that has often been discussed as a starter for the upcoming season. Not surprisingly, Romero is a lefty and I’m reminded of Dustin McGowan in that he has awesome stuff and obvious physical gifts but does he believe in them and can he harness it?
I remember I took some grief for not being analytical enough when assessing McGowan when I stated that all he needed was the epiphany that his pitches could get major league hitters out and he needed to challenge batters with it. I saw a lack of confidence and not command holding him back. McGowan was giving the man at the plate far too much credit instead of feeling bad for the batsman for what he was about to do to him.
Hey, it’s not always about the numbers--they didn’t coin the expression “million dollar arm--ten cent head” because they liked the sound of it; sometimes a pitcher’s biggest problem is above the neck and not something mechanical or a phenomenon that shows up in the numbers. Sometimes folks are their own toughest critic and a little arrogance in their field never hurts. I know what it’s like to hold a baseball in my hand and thinking the hitter can’t wait for me to let go of it. You end up trying to paint the black rather than ramming it down their throat and daring them to hit it.
Brian Jeroloman--who will hopefully be catching in Toronto before much longer--said of Romero:
"Ricky is so talented and Ricky is a guy we love to have on the bump every day. He wants to win more than anyone else on the field, he will do whatever he can to win the game. Catching him is very easy, it is easy to get on the same page as him, he doesn't realize how good he is, I wish he could face himself and that could make him understand how tough it is to hit against him. He has such dynamite pitches that sometimes he tries to do too much, sometimes he gets in his own way. I love catching him, he is a bulldog, catchers love that....Once he realizes how good he is, that's when things are going to start falling for him." (Hat tip to Batters Box)While Romero’s career BB/9 (3.8) is unexciting I think that’s more a confidence than a command issue; this much is certain, Cito Gaston’s trademark is getting players to believe in themselves so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles Romero in Spring Training.
So far, we know the Jays have 2-3 spots up for grabs and we’ve touched on the following candidates: Purcey, Cecil, Mills, two Romeros and Mike Maroth; we haven’t yet discussed Scott Richmond, Robert Ray, Matt Clement as well as potential relievers that will be tried as starters--Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and possibly Scott Downs but it’s hard not to think that the organization should be able to put together a solid rotation when you again consider the support they’ll have both defensively and the bullpen.
We’ll likely return to this subject and finish going over the candidates but right now Toronto has three jobs (well, I think it’s two since Purcey has likely sown one up barring injury) and 12 talented or experienced guys vying for them. Assuming Purcey is already in, that leaves 11 for two spots and I think when you look at what’s available, Jays’ fans shouldn’t lose too much sleep over who will make quality starts and don’t forget, we haven’t even discussed Dustin McGowan’s return yet.
Best Regards
John
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