Pinstripe peril produce purple snits!!!

Yeah, yeah, stack up the canned goods and fresh water, head to the underground bunker and load the assault rifles for truly the apocalypse is nigh. The New York Yankees are hogging all the toys again!

I scarcely know where to start.

O.K., to begin with; let’s look objectively at what the Yankees gained this offseason:

Thus far, it appears that C.C. Sabathia replaces Andy Pettitte in the rotation. Now, don’t forget that Sabathia’s heroics occurred in the NL—before the trade to Milwaukee Sabathia was making most of his starts pitching in the AL Central. In 2008, he posted a 3.83 ERA (116 ERA+) and he faced the A’s three times, the Royals three times and made five other starts against poor offensive teams. That’s 11 of 18 starts he made before the trade against inferior clubs—it was admittedly a bit of a fall off from 2007. However, he made no starts against the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays before being shipped across league lines.

Sabathia is a 1-8, 6.18 ERA against the Yankees lifetime so he’s protected against that. He’s 2-4, 3.91 against the Red Sox, pitched well against the Rays although he did not face them in 2008 and has had little difficulty against Toronto (weak offensively the last two seasons) and Baltimore (‘nuf said).

Last year, Andy Pettitte logged 204 innings with a 98 ERA+ (4.54 ERA) making 13 starts within the division.

In short, the Yankees made an upgrade here but it’s not like they went from replacement level to what C.C. did in Milwaukee. Bear in mind that this will not be the Sabathia we’ll see in the Bronx—he is a career 121 ERA+ starter that toiled in what has often been a weak division. Oddly enough—the most comparable to him statistically at this point of his career is Freddy Garcia. Obviously he is better than Garcia but it is good to remember that Sabathia’s biggest asset is his durability and that he delivers a lot of quality innings but nobody is talking “future Hall of Famer” here.

A.J. Burnett replaces Mike Mussina: last season Burnett threw 221.3 innings at a 105 ERA+ (4.07 ERA), Mussina tossed 200.3 IP for an ERA+ of 132 (3.37 ERA)—now over his 18 seasons Mussina has averaged 198 innings with 11 seasons over 200 yet bear in mind that “Moose” has actually had 16 162-game seasons due to work stoppages so he has actually had 200 innings campaigns in almost 70%of his career. A.J. has averaged 137 innings per season with three of 10 full (seasons) of over 200 IP and as we’ve discussed before, Burnett has never had back-to-back 180-inning campaigns while Mussina’s season average is 198! A.J.’s 200 inning seasons traditionally translate into injury shortened ones immediately after; simply put Burnett will need to enjoy one his better seasons to match what Mussina did in 2008.

So, as far as 2009 goes it’s probably a bit of a downgrade.

Mark Teixeira is a huge boost from Jason Giambi defensively but offensively Teixeira’s last three seasons (as stated) consisted of OPS+ of 126, 150 and 151 with 96 HR while Giambi was 148, 108 and 126 slugging with 83 jacks—a pretty good upgrade but at a position of minimal defensive importance.

Right now, when you consider how the offensive core will be a year older, the defense remains poor and the middle relief is still iffy and the end of the rotation still has question marks it’s hard to see how this $424 million spending spree has turned the pinstripes from a third place team to a world champion. I think the Yankees will be better over the long haul with the trio but I don’t see a big difference between the 2008 and 2009 clubs.

I’m thinking the panic is a wee bit overblown.

At any rate, it is hard to ignore that the advantage the Yankees enjoy is now on bold display. Right now, J.P. Ricciardi is trying to ensure that there are a lot of available seats at the Rogers Centre for 2009 with his proclamations that it’s never too early to fire up the “wait ‘til next year” mantras or make a concession speech.

Ricciardi is a lousy salesman—I mean, here are your division rivals reloading in a big way and he chooses this opportunity to let the fan base know that, as a franchise, they’re not even going to try? Folks are speculating that there could be significant bargains to be had, that some quality players could be available without any long term commitments as free agents might simply wait for a year or two before inking a long term deal but the Jays are saying that they’re not even willing to take advantage of a potential discount special?

I really think that Ricciardi has been assured that he will be employed until his contract expires so he is not going to sweat a mediocre 2009 season.

But I digress—I’ll save my self-loathing as a Blue Jays’ fan for another post.

Getting back to the Bombers’ operating on another plane financially is having a lot of folks wanting to see a salary cap brought into the sport.

While I’m not a fan of caps for a lot of reasons, I do think it is inevitable and all the more so now that the MLBPA has fallen so far and the vast majority of teams are simply part of larger corporate portfolios and can withstand a stoppage until the players cave. I think this offseason will splinter the players even more in that we’ll see the elite get their money as we have already witnessed but a lot of lesser free agents are going to see a lot less and the rank-and-file player is simply not going to sacrifice just so the top guys can go to the Yankees for top dollar because that is to what it all ultimately boils down.

If you’re a superstar free agent your best bet is the New York Yankees—they have close to unlimited resources and are willing to spend it. There are a small minority of teams that are also willing to spend big but as A.J. Burnett stated "Whether you love them or hate them, everybody wants to be a Yankee." It’s not because everybody dream of playing in pinstripes but simply that if the Bronx Bombers decide that they want you as part of the team they will make you very wealthy in a way that no other team is prepared.

So, in effect, why would your average player forgo a year (or more) of his earnings in a career that is so uncertain just so top talent can be paid hundreds of millions of dollars by the AL franchise in New York?

Further, the biggest problem isn’t the Yankees’ spending as it is the lack of investment by other clubs. The Steinbrenner’s are nowhere near the wealthiest member of the ownership cartel. Getting back to the Blue Jays for a moment, it’s not that Rogers Communication cannot increase payroll, it’s that they choose not to do so.

I mean, to me, the what the Yankees are doing is far less reprehensible than the fact that what the Bronx Bombers spend in luxury taxes and revenue sharing is more than what teams like the Marlins spend in total payroll. It is unconscionable for a club to spend less on the major league roster than they receive in revenue sharing.

Ultimately, while Bud Selig gives lip service to competitive balance and parity, the primary motivational directive is and always has been profits. That being the case, the money flows better when the big market teams are good and this system helps make it happen and further, if Selig had his utopia of 100 % revenue sharing and a hard salary cap teams would have no reason to hit up municipalities for hundreds of millions of dollars of corporate welfare for their stadium scams.

An “unfair” system is used as the reason for public support and if the league had the aforementioned utopia how can a team say they need a new stadium to be competitive if their revenues and expenses are pre-set due to sharing and a cap?

The conclusion of the matter is this: there is way too much hysteria over what the Yankees are doing—they haven’t won a World Series since 2000 despite their spending going meta. Always remember this one fact: it’s not that teams cannot spend more for the most part, it’s that they will not. I, for one, would love to have the Jays owned by a group so committed to putting a winning product on the field. The Yankees have massive revenues but at least they spend it and the fans know that even though they’re paying more, at least the franchise is making sure they get full value for the money spent.

Isn’t that what your typical consumer wants with the businesses with whom they deal?

Best Regards

John