DOA.J.?

Tell me about a guy having this for a season:

 AVG    OBP    SLG  Runs    HR   RBI  SB
.303   .413   .574   120    41   123  21

Now, what do you think about someone doing that for five straight years?

In those five seasons he was an All Star, won a pair of MVP, and three times was given the Silver Slugger for being the best hitter at his position.

What would you think if some of the fans of the team for which he plays viewed this player with a degree of disappointment? Probably the first thing that would come to mind is what would cause that level of performance to be viewed in such a manner?

Well, one theory might be how well he played up to that point in time--maybe he regressed. So, let’s take a look at the previous eight full seasons this man played in the big leagues. He averaged:

 AVG    OBP    SLG  Runs    HR   RBI  SB
.311   .387   .590   124    42   121  21

Pretty consistent if you ask me--13 straight seasons of inner circle Hall of Fame greatness.

Then why are some of the fans of his current team down on such a prodigious talent?

Ever hear the expression about the importance of first impressions? Here’s a look at his first season with his current club:

 AVG    OBP    SLG  Runs    HR   RBI  SB
.286   .375   .512   112    36   106  28

That’s still a pretty good season by anybody’s reckoning. Let’s add a visual:

Slappy McBluelips begins...

Ah yes…Alex Rodriguez.

Yes, to some, A-Rod has never lived down 2004; the poor-for-him season and the final four games of the ALCS against the despised Boston Red Sox. Had the Yankees won that series and Rodriguez went on to win World Series MVP chances are good that subsequent post season flops were simply sample size and that acquiring Rodriguez would rank up there with the acquisition of George Herman Ruth.

Obviously, the more baseball savvy members of the Yankee fan base recognize that he’s a good guy to have on the ol’ 25-man roster even if they’re not enamoured with his persona, his agent or the other red herrings that make ones long for the misty watered coloured memories of Scott Brosius.

If you’re a hired gun of the New York Yankees you will not be given the grace and the allowances made for any shortcomings that are enjoyed by the likes of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera--homegrown Yankee lifers all. Although Andy Pettitte had three years away from the Bronx, he could count on more slack than Mike Mussina. The bottom line is that if you’re an interloper pulling down the big bucks you’d better produce from Day One or else. Jason Giambi batted .314/.435/.598 with 41 HR while reaching the rare trifecta of 100+ in the runs/RBI/BB and followed that up with a .357/.526/.571 performance in a losing effort in the ALDS in his inaugural season wearing the pinstripes and was set. As long as he continued to hit he would be forgiven in the whole BALCO scandal that caused so much angst. 2004 would not be held against him as he posted OPS+ of 161 and 148 the years following his part in the mess.

What will the next five years hold for A.J. Burnett?

As will be discussed in more detail in this week’s upcoming SMSN column, his tenure and happiness in pinstripes will be decided in year one of the deal--succeed and he’s gold, fail and he hears the name Ed Whitson, get hurt and Carl Pavano will be invoked.

It’s not fair and the comparisons are bogus but that is the reality of the situation and the current circumstances coming into 2009 do not bode well for A.J. Burnett. Every season he has tossed 200+ innings have been followed by a pair of injury shortened campaigns. The Yankees’ problems last year had as much to do with the offense as it did the pitching and bullpen leading up to Mo Rivera--areas that haven’t been addressed as of yet.

Burnett will not have the stellar defense behind him in New York that he did in Toronto and his occasionally erratic command (3.71 B/9; 14 starts in 2007-08 with four or more walks) will be more of a problem since more balls in play will become hits rather than outs and double plays. He will need more pitches to get through more innings than he did the last two seasons.

If he wants to throw 200 quality innings next season the circumstances do not bode well for A.J. He has yet to throw 200 (yet alone 180) innings in back-to-back seasons. A poor debut in the Bronx might mean his five year deal could be a five year sentence.

He has the stuff to succeed there--he is a superb pitcher when healthy however it takes more than talent to thrive with the Yankees as history attests. Hopefully he can pull it off because as much as I want to see the Yankees lose, I hate to see talented players not fulfill their potential since watching them is what makes baseball fun.

Best Regards

John